Since its founding in 1946, the National Basketball Association (NBA) has fostered many long-standing dynasties, teams that have maintained top ranks and continue to be top-tier teams currently. However, many teams that have a lot of cap space, the amount of money a team is allowed to spend on player salaries each season, and stacked rosters are no longer contenders for the NBA championship come end-of-season. Why is that? It comes down to a few factors.
First, many star athletes want a team that is built around them and tailored to their skillset. This is not ideal for an NBA General Manager (GM): when multiple players on the same team have their own agendas, it is hard to satisfy all of them, forcing managers to make trades and getting nothing in return. A prime example of this is the 2021-2022 Brooklyn Nets, whose roster included Kevin Durant (KD), James Harden, and Kyrie Irving, three future Hall of Famers that were favorites to win it all that year. However, their season was far from a success, as the three stars only played 16 games together out of the 82 per season. The next season, they all ended up being traded away and the team fell apart. This shows how having high caliber players doesn’t define a team’s success in the post season.
In addition, many teams that spend over their budgets to bring new players end up having unreliable backup players, leading to a horrible bench and no results. This is what happened with the Golden State Warriors after Kevin Durant left following the 2018-2019 season. Losing a guaranteed all star such as KD, plus the warriors doing nothing in the off season, hurt their chances of making another finals appearance. The Warriors had one of their worst seasons the year after, with a record of 15-50, despite going to the finals the year prior. Having a team that can’t even compete during the regular season is a result of poor team management, and a failure to replace a good player with role players, which are important to the team as they are key replacements in injury situations.
The last requirement for establishing a successful NBA team is a dedicated and competent front office. Although fans are quick to criticize players for a team’s inadequate performance, these problems often stem from administrative issues. Not having a GM that has all their priorities set on their team leads to a front office that makes no off season moves to expand and improve the team and instead only focuses on successes off the court, such as personal finances. An example of this is the L.A. Clippers, who have been victim to several controversies over the last few years. Recently, they found a loophole in the rules allowing them to sign star player Kawhi Leonard. They did so through a deal with a private company, called Aspiration, that the Clippers’ Owner, Steve Ballmer, was heavily involved in. Having an owner involved in controversies will hinder the growth of his team and always end in either a change in management, or a team in which the players don’t even want to be a part of.
(Photo Credit: Chensiyuan, CC BY-SA 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons)
These three factors can make or break a team, no matter its history, its players, its cap space, or any other factor that most people think are the reason teams fail.
Now that we know what makes a successful team, the question left is: who will win the chip this year? Will the Oklahoma City Thunder (OKC) win two in a row, or will a historically unsuccessful franchise, such as the Pelicans or the Pistons, make an unexpected playoff run and win it all? This off season has shown us a lot about each team’s chances and the truth is, there is no definite answer. It all comes down to how well the team has performed during these first preseason games. This is because new signings and rookies have gotten the opportunity to showcase their skills. Currently, we have three frontrunners teams who were undefeated in the preseason: the San Antonio Spurs, Orlando Magic, and Houston Rockets. This turnout is surprising; these teams were not as strong coming into last season. Although performances this early on don’t count in terms of overall season success, they are a strong indication of what fans should expect of their team once the regular season starts.
Sports media has offered a variety of different opinions on their take for the current best team in the NBA, as their stats are based on performances from last season. This poses a major issue with predictions as current teams aren’t as consistent as they once were. For example, no team has won two consecutive championships since the Golden State Warriors from 2017-2018, and no team has won three consecutive championships since the Los Angeles Lakers from 2000-2002. These stats are ridiculous considering that there have been numerous rosters with 3 or more all-star players since then, and only a small margin of them even made a significant run in the playoffs. However, if fans start paying attention to early season performances after trades and roster changes, they can get a better idea of how ready their team is for the post-season.
In addition to these predictions made by media outlets, when I asked students at Bronx Science, a New York public high school, who they think will win, I immediately noticed a pattern of biases with predictions. Most said the Knicks or the Nets, both of which are New York teams. Although the Knicks have a chance of winning this year, personal bias would most likely lead one to picking the wrong team, especially if one’s team hasn’t been necessarily strong in the last couple of years.
The massive range in predictions each year lead to widespread debate over the best teams in the NBA. However, there are three teams this year that stand out from the rest, and have the highest likelihood of winning or at least making an expected run in the playoffs. After analyzing popular answers I’ve read and heard personally, I believe that the three most probable and popular candidates to win this year’s NBA championship are the Oklahoma City Thunder, Houston Rockets, and New York Knicks. This prediction comes both from their outstanding performances in their preseason games and how they played in the first few games of the season. All of these teams have done their absolute best to improve squad depth to prepare themselves for a long and competitive 82 games. Although anything can happen this season, these teams have proven to the NBA fanbase that they are serious contenders for a championship. Moreover, OKC has last year’s MVP, Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, and a trophy. The Knicks, on the other hand, have a prime Jalen Brunson and Karl Anthony-Towns, coming off of an eastern conference finals appearance. Since all these teams have new signings, a dedicated front office, and a smart coach, I don’t see why there won’t be multiple seven game series this playoff season. Taking everything into consideration, these teams fit all the criteria of a successful basketball franchise, and most importantly, have loyal high caliber players that want to win a chip.
The question left is: who will win the chip this year? Will the Oklahoma City Thunder (OKC) win two in a row, or will a historically unsuccessful franchise, such as the Pelicans or the Pistons, make an unexpected playoff run and win it all? This off season has shown us a lot about each team’s chances and the truth is, there is no definite answer.