By and large, younger generations have always been more left leaning. They elected Barack Obama by a 34% margin in 2008, Hillary Clinton won them by almost 20%, and Joe Biden by over 27%. Time and time again, 18-29 year-olds have displayed their decisive support for key Democratic issues such as abortion rights and climate change.
However, this is not the case in 2024. This year, young women have enthusiastically thrown their support behind the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris. Young men on the other hand? They’re voting for Republican candidate Donald Trump at greater rates than their fathers, leading to a staggering 51 point gender gap that has stunned pollsters and pundits alike and raised questions about the outcome of the upcoming 2024 election.
The History of the Gender Gap
The Political Gender Gap has existed since the early 1980s, where women began to assert their own agency following the second wave of feminism. They entered the workforce in large numbers, earning their own income for the first time, and were drawn towards the Democratic party that outwardly championed women’s causes like abortion access and the Equal Rights Amendment.
Later, Democratic presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, who recognized the vital role women’s support played in their success, signed into law bills like the Family and Medical Leave Act and the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act that cemented Democratic support amongst women.
While women have flocked towards the Democratic party, men, particularly white men, have remained the consistent voter base for Republican politicians. Many are drawn to the party’s support of social conservatism and familial values, and to the supposed “strength” of the Republican Party.
These dueling factors have contributed to the gender gap in American politics, a gap that continues to grow as partisan polarization reaches new heights.
The Evolution of the Gender Gap Amongst GenZ
Millennial women are considered to be the most liberal, having grown up with working mothers and unprecedented access to education and career opportunities. However, Gen Z women might be poised to widen this gap. Born into a post #MeToo world and having grown up during the Trump presidency, many Gen Z women have witnessed firsthand the attacks on reproductive rights and the sustained presence of sexism in politics.
The 2016 election was a turning point for many young women. The race, in part, became a referendum on gender. Hillary Clinton ran a campaign largely centered around her record breaking role as the first female candidate of a major political party. Meanwhile, Trump often made overtly sexist statements, where he called Clinton a “nasty woman” and bragged about the Access Hollywood tapes. Clinton’s eventual loss was painful for many, but also was a wakeup call that sexism was as prevalent as ever in American politics. Ensuing protests, most notably the Women’s March on Washington, only cemented this idea.
The 2022 overturning of Roe v Wade eliminating the constitutional right to an abortion, was truly where women were forced to confront that their rights were under siege. After a lifetime of reproductive freedom, a third of women around the country were suddenly saddled with draconian regulations, often restricting their access to an abortion past 6 weeks with no exceptions. This was only made possible by Trump’s 3 Supreme Court picks, shifting the court towards a conservative majority and allowing the law to be overturned 5-4. Abortion transformed into the number one issue for women under 30 today, motivating them to vote Democratic in order to restore their constitutional right.
The shift, however, is not just limited to women’s issues. The gender divergence in attitudes has become self-sustaining, propelled by strong role models in Washington that have spurred political involvement and engagement among young women. In 2018, a record number of female progressive legislators were elected to Congress. For the first time, Gen Z women saw themselves represented in Congress, through politicians who could bridge the age and gender gap and provide them with a legislative voice. Thus, what began as a progressive-versus-conservative divide over gender evolved into a broader political realignment.
Conversely, many young men are moving in the opposite direction. They feel left behind in modern politics – young men are less likely to enroll in college, more likely to be single, and are reportedly lonelier than ever – and see Donald Trump and conservative politicians as an answer. He has acknowledged their insecurities and used hypermasculine tendencies to paint the Republicans as strong while the Democrats as soft and inexperienced. While this same crude language often alienates female voters, it brings in men attracted to his machismo persona.
Trump has also secured the endorsement of several “alpha male” online personalities that many young men follow including Dave Portnoy, the founder of Barstool Sports, and Hulk Hogan, a retired professional wrestler. These proxies help further the narrative that “masculinity is under siege,” and that Donald Trump represents the escape from extreme wokeism.
Much of Trump’s support is also derived from deep fears over the economy. With less and less young men going to university, many are entering the workforce right after college and are concerned about their ability to support themselves and their families. With record levels of inflation, record high food and gas prices, and homeownership becoming increasingly out of reach, many fondly look back to the Trump years as positive economically for themselves and the country.
Implications on the 2024 Election
Historically, women have turned out in greater numbers for Democratic candidates, but the sheer magnitude of the gap in 2024 is unprecedented. Kamala Harris’s strong appeal among young women – contrasted with Donald Trump’s growing support among young men – presents a unique electoral dynamic.
The challenge that Kamala Harris faces is in maintaining her stronghold among young women while reaching out to the disillusioned young men who have drifted away from the Democratic Party. Despite her efforts to reduce the gender gap, many men view her as incapable and as an extension of the Biden administration. However, her running mate, Tim Walz, has focused on gender by emphasizing a different type of masculinity from Trump and the GOP. While Walz is a veteran, gun owner and former football coach, he’s also a strong supporter of women’s rights and reproductive freedom, and worked as a teacher in a female dominated profession. His message – men don’t have to sacrifice their masculinity by respecting women and prioritizing their issues.
Only time will tell if this strategy is successful. There is just one week left before voters around the country cast their ballots on Election Day on Tuesday, November 5th, 2024, and early voting is already beginning in states like North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Harris needs to focus on addressing the economic anxieties and cultural frustrations of young men if she hopes to bridge the gap and bring more young men into Democratic fold.
Biden relied on young people to propel him to victory in 2020, and with the polls showing razor thin margins in all battleground states, any shift towards Trump of young male voters could decide the election in 2024. But even after November 5th, the question remains: How will the nation navigate this growing divide, and what will it mean for the future of American democracy?
This year, young women have enthusiastically thrown their support behind the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris. Young men on the other hand? They’re voting for Republican candidate Donald Trump at greater rates than their fathers.