Ending off a chaotic election season in Brazil, right-wing incumbent Jair Bolsonaro was ejected from office after one term, in favor of former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Lula’s political revival is unprecedented: after serving two terms from 2003-2011, he was sentenced to 26 years in prison on corruption charges (which were later found to be a violation of his right to a fair trial by a United Nations panel), and spent 580 days in jail until the charges were overturned last June 2022. 

While managing to retake the presidency after two years behind bars is impressive, Lula’s win was not as overwhelming as polls had expected. Most pollsters had put his lead in the double digits, and some predicted he would cross the 50% threshold needed to win a month earlier in the first round. Those incorrect predictions allowed Bolsonaro and his allies to stir up mistrust in the sanctity of the election, going as far as right wing lawmakers in Brazil pushing for the criminalization of faulty pollsters. 

That was just one piece in the overarching problem throughout Brazil’s election season, Bolsonaro potentially refusing to give up power. He’s been immutable for a while — last year, he told supporters that the election would have one of three outcomes: he wins, he’s killed, or he’s arrested. He then said: “Tell the [jerks] I’ll never be arrested.” 

And at one point, Bolsonaro seemed convincing. He had what was needed to actually obstruct the election result — military support. Back in June 2022, military leaders voiced some agreement with Bolsonaro about vulnerabilities in the voting system. But changes were then made to protect the voting systems in response to that criticism, and military officials pulled back, claiming to be satisfied with the changes. 

Regardless of who was on his side, Bolsonaro’s strategy has been pretty consistent since he first ran for president in 2018: he always appeared unaccepting of loss — to stay in office by any means necessary. As Lula’s victory started looking to be all but certain, Brazil looked to be repeating the 2020 American election, where the concept of a peaceful transition of power was thrown away completely.

But when Lula was declared the winner on the night of October 30th, 2022, Bolsonaro was completely silent. Two days later, he reluctantly agreed to proceed with the transition of power.

That didn’t matter to his supporters. After Bolsonaro gave up on November 2nd, 2022, his supporters were out in the streets, making a variety of demands stretching from holding a new election to calling for a downright military takeover. But without the military or Bolsonaro himself committed to keeping the leader in office, no amount of protesting has much potential to change the outcome. 

In the four short years he managed to hold office, Bolsonaro’s presidency has been disastrous for Brazil: his poor handling of COVID-19 as leader has led to nearly 700,000 deaths from the pandemic within the country. Now that he’s leaving office, he could face charges of crimes against humanity. And Lula’s past serves as precedent that, unlike in America, that could actually mean jail time for Bolsonaro.

The impact of this election outcome extends to the entire world, because the president of Brazil decides the fate of one of the most crucial factors in the climate crisis, the Amazon Rainforest.

Bolsonaro’s administration has been destructive for the Amazon, with the climate change-denying leader never missing an opportunity to loosen regulations on mining and logging. Meanwhile, during Lula’s previous time in office, 2003-2011, he oversaw an 80% decrease in logging throughout the rainforest. 

The Amazon can be both an asset and a burden to humanity. A healthy Amazon absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere: one fourth of all CO2 absorption on land happens in the Amazon. But deforestation releases all of that carbon right back into the atmosphere. When the Amazon is taken care of, it helps to solve the climate crisis; when it’s abused, it fuels a warming planet.

Bolsonaro has no regard for the Amazon and the global climate – during his term, he has quite literally held the Amazon hostage from the rest of the world, having said last year, “There must be fair payment for environmental services provided by our biomes to the planet at large.” That’s not someone who you would want in charge of the world’s most precious ecosystem.

So what does Lula’s win mean? Well, the drastic improvements in Brazil’s economy and environment Lula managed throughout his previous tenure might be difficult to replicate, especially because he’s working against a divided Congress that doesn’t line up with his political interests. But at the very least, the massive rollbacks of environmental policy reforms that Bolsonaro orchestrated will end, as will the lapses in judgment that led to Brazil’s failed COVID-19 response. And most importantly, Lula’s victory means that, in the world’s fourth largest democracy, free and fair elections will live to see another day.

So what does Lula’s win mean? Well, the drastic improvements in Brazil’s economy and environment Lula managed throughout his previous tenure might be difficult to replicate, especially because he’s working against a divided Congress that doesn’t line up with his political interests. But at the very least, the massive rollbacks of environmental policy reforms that Bolsonaro orchestrated will end, as will the lapses in judgment that led to Brazil’s failed COVID-19 response. And most importantly, Lula’s victory means that, in the world’s fourth largest democracy, free and fair elections will live to see another day.