If you have taken a basic chemistry course before, then you have probably heard of Dmitri Mendeleev, the Russian scientist renowned for creating the modern periodic table. In 1906, Mendeleev predicted that Russia’s population would reach 600 million by the end of the twentieth century. Now in the 21st century, Russia’s population sits at 143.8 million, and the prospect of Mendeleev’s forecast coming true seems less plausible each day.
Russia’s federal statistics agency, Rosstat, made a grim prediction that the population of Russia could decrease by 15.4 million by 2046. Another estimate from the United Nations claims that Russia’s population could decline by 25-50% by the year 2100. This emerging demographic crisis is in stark contrast to Russia’s immense geographic size and current economic stature; Russia is the largest country in the world by land mass, and it has the 11th highest GDP in the world. It seems unfathomable that the most populous country in Europe could be on track to lose up to half of its citizens by the end of the century, but Russia’s population rates have either remained static or dwindled since the year 2000.
In order for the population of a country to increase, the birth rate must exceed the death rate. We see this trend in many African countries, which are experiencing a huge boom in population; The United Nations anticipates that the overall population of Africa will increase by around 950 million people by 2050. Ideally, the immigrants coming into a country should also outnumber the amount of emigrants leaving the country, as is the case in Canada and Australia, where immigration has doubled in recent years. Conversely, Russia’s death rate has been higher than their birth rate consistently, and approximately 900,000 Russians have emigrated from their home country since their government’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Simply put, the odds have not been in favor of Russia: high mortality rates, low fertility and birth rates, and skyrocketing emigration have resulted in this population decline. Although there have been ups-and-downs in these statistics, variations have been minimal, even prior to the dissolution of the Soviet Union. But why has this been the case for so long?
In 2010, the United Nations reported that for every 100 women in the world, there were 102 men. In general, populations are often evenly distributed, with men usually taking only a slight lead. In Russia however, the women greatly outnumber the men: In 2023, it was found that for every 100 Russian females, there were less than 87 Russian males. What is the cause for this huge discrepancy that seems to defy the global norm? There are several factors that contribute to this concerning, asymmetrical ratio.
The war initiated by their own government is the most senseless reason for the decline in Russian men. Many soldiers in the Russian Army have been mistreated in the Russo-Ukrainian war, with some claiming that they were responsible for providing their own supplies for battle, such as first aid and ammunition. Others say that they were given a mere week of training before being sent directly into the crossfire. The Russian government has failed to realize that their mens’ lives are indispensable, resulting in the loss of around 839,000 Russian troops since 2021, as estimated by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Another issue that directly impacts both Russian men and women is the declining health of the new generation in their country. Today, the most common cause of death in Russia is cardiovascular illness, such as heart disease, stroke, and cardiac arrest. A study found that Russians aged 35-69 are eight times more likely to die from cardiovascular disease than those in Norway, a country with a relatively low cardiovascular disease mortality rate. Researchers compared bio-markers in the blood of both Russian and Norwegian test subjects, aiming to study differences in the population and determine their risks of developing cardiovascular disease.
When the experiment concluded, researchers discovered that the Russian group of test subjects had elevated levels of a protein known as NT-proBNP; an excess of this protein is an indication that one’s heart is working harder to pump blood throughout the body than usual. The test subjects from Russia also had significantly higher levels of hs-cTnT and hsCRP, two proteins that are associated with cardiovascular disease when levels are elevated. These concerning trends were not seen in the Norwegian test subjects.
Aside from the biomarkers found in their blood, researchers also noticed some other alarming differences between the Russian and Norwegian groups: The study concluded that the Russian test subjects as a whole faced higher risks of developing high blood pressure and diabetes than their Norwegian counterparts.
This variation could stem from differences in lifestyle and healthcare systems; Russia’s healthcare system is often criticized for being underfunded, leaving the most vulnerable Russians to rely on outdated equipment and underpaid, poorly trained doctors to save their lives. In contrast, Norway has a much more effective healthcare system, ranked seventh in the world; access to such high-quality care has led to better overall heart health among Norway’s citizens.
Russia also has higher rates of smoking and alcohol consumption, which are both risk factors of developing cardiovascular disease. According to the Washington Post, it was found that the average alcohol consumption per capita in Russia is double the rate that is considered dangerous by the WHO, and three times as many Russians succumb to cardiovascular disease as Americans or other Europeans. A 2014 study also found a strong correlation between the high risk of premature death among Russian adults, particularly men, and the consumption of alcoholic drinks like vodka.
The dwindling birth and fertility rates in Russia are also vital factors that have contributed to their rapid decline in population. Currently, the country’s total fertility rate is just 1.5 children per woman. This is much lower than the necessary replacement level of 2.1, which is the average number of children each Russian woman should have in order to maintain a stable population. Factors contributing to this low fertility rate are multifaceted. Economic instability, high living costs, and political uncertainty have discouraged families from having children. For many Russians, raising a family seems implausible due to these financial pressures, creating a situation where younger generations are opting for having fewer children, or even none at all.
Emigration rates are another critical factor exacerbating Russia’s population problem. Increasing numbers of Russians are leaving the country in search of better economic opportunities, political stability, and improved living conditions abroad. The loss of highly skilled professionals like doctors, engineers, and tech experts is particularly damaging. Many of these individuals are migrating to countries with stronger job markets and more favorable conditions for their careers. This phenomenon, commonly referred to as “brain drain,” is further diminishing the country’s ability to innovate and maintain its position on the global stage. If current trends continue, Russia would face a diminished labor force, and consequently, a reduced influence on the rest of the world.
The Russian government has attempted to mitigate the effects of the country’s declining population with financial incentives for families to have children, but these measures have been fruitless. A recent and highly controversial effort from the government to boost fertility rates is a policy in which Russian schoolgirls are offered up to 150,000 rubles ($1,600) in exchange for having children. The program has been met with backlash from prominent members of the Russian Orthodox church as well as the Duma, the Russian legislative assembly, with many believing that the measure undercuts traditional values. The Kremlin has also tried to augment birth rates by limiting access to abortion.
These efforts fall short because the Russian government does not address the underlying causes of their declining population, like inadequate healthcare, limited access to quality education, and insufficient childcare support. Without a comprehensive approach to improving living conditions for families, Russia’s demographic decline is likely to continue.
The implications of these downward trends are profound. As Russia’s population shrinks, the country faces stunted economic growth and a smaller workforce to sustain its industries. Russia’s role in the global economy, particularly in energy and manufacturing, would also be diminished. If the population continues to dwindle, the country would struggle to maintain its geopolitical influence, especially as other countries like China and India experience mass population growth and economic expansion.
In order for Russia to reverse this trend, it is imperative that the government makes significant reforms involving resources like improved healthcare, robust support for families, and stronger policies that encourage higher birth rates and immigration. Without any substantial changes, Russia faces a grim fate.
Russia’s federal statistics agency, Rosstat, made a grim prediction that the population of Russia could decrease by 15.4 million by 2046. Another estimate from the United Nations claims that Russia’s population could decline by 25-50% by the year 2100. This emerging demographic crisis is in stark contrast to Russia’s immense geographic size and current economic stature; Russia is the largest country in the world by land mass, and it has the 11th highest GDP in the world.