“History is seasonal, and winter is coming.”

These ominous words, penned by William Strauss, capture the essence of generational theory, a cyclical vision of history where societies rise, unravel, and ultimately endure cataclysmic crises before being reborn. In 1991, William Strauss and Neil Howe published Generations, a book in which they first introduced the Strauss-Howe Generational Theory, which proposes a mutual influence between generations and the historical periods they experience. The events and cultural forces of a particular era shape the mindset and character of the generations growing up during that time, and once these generations come of age, their collective behaviors and values influence the next era of history.

Said best by Strauss himself, “History creates generations, and generations create history. This symbiosis between life and time explains why, if one is seasonal, the other must be.”

In this theory, Strauss and Howe identify four eras, referred to as turnings, each lasting around 21 years, in which a new socio economic climate exists. Each turning shapes the generation which are maturing at the time, fueling this cyclical nature of history. The final turning in a saeculum, or a completed cycle, is a crisis, named the “Fourth Turning.” This final era results in a change so catastrophic the whole cycle begins anew.

According to their framework, we are currently approaching, if we are not already in the deep “winter” of this cycle, a period marked by economic turmoil, social fragmentation, and looming global conflict. Today’s upheavals fit eerily into the pattern of past Fourth Turnings, suggesting we are on the cusp of seismic societal transformation. But if winter is indeed here, what comes next, and who will shape the spring that follows?

Strauss-Howe Generational Theory

In the late 1980s, historians William Strauss and Neil Howe first converged to explain why Boomers and G.I.s (Individuals part of the “Greatest Generation” in which they lived through World War I and II), viewed the world so differently, even though they are of neighboring generations. While G.I.s were conformist and faithful in their institutions, boomers seemed to be the opposite. Their research, published in Generations, identified a recurring cycle of four generational archetypes—Prophet, Nomad, Hero, and Artist—shaped by four turnings. This framework became the foundation for their generational theory, which suggests that history moves in predictable, seasonal cycles. This article will examine each turning and the generations they shape in the context of the most recently completed saeculum, the Great Power Saeculum (1865-1946), and then examine the current Millennial Saeculum (1946~2034), and what lies in our unmistakably historical future.

The First Turning – High

Built by the Artists of the Crisis, the High is an era of renewed stability, conformity, and institutional strength that follows a major crisis, or a fourth turning. Having emerged from societal turmoil, people seek security, order, and progress, eager to rebuild themselves and their institutions. During this turning, institutions are widely trusted, and individualism is restrained in favor of collective well-being—all to distance themselves from previous crises. Society values civic cooperation, traditional family structures, and conformity, fostering an atmosphere of optimism and expansionism.

According to Strauss and Howe, the two most recent Highs, the Gilded Age and the Golden Age of Capitalism exemplify this turning. After the crisis of the Civil War, the United States entered an era of reconstruction and expansion. The Gilded Age saw rapid industrial growth, strengthening national institutions and promoting everything “traditional,” such as gender, race, and class conformity as it is known today. However, beneath the surface, class tensions and the seeds of future labor unrest were brewing.

A saeculum later, the G.I. Generation returned from World War II and built the foundations of modern prosperity, increasing diplomacy, launching infrastructure projects, and creating stable institutions culminating in the Golden Age of Capitalism. The era saw low crime rates, high civic engagement, and a booming economy. Yet, the rebellion was quietly growing among the sheltered Boomer children, who would come of age during the next turning.

These eras of prosperity most significantly shape the generational archetype; the Prophet. Prophets grow up as sheltered children in the stable, ordered world of the High. Subsequently, they develop idealistic mindsets as they have the ability to dream from the safety of prosperity. Once they come of age, they reject the conformity of the High, driving the cultural revolutions of the next turning.

The Second Turning – The Awakening

Shaped by the Prophets of the High, the Awakening is a time of cultural revolution and upheaval, marked by widespread disillusionment with the conformity of the High. As individualism surges, people reject their establishments and challenge social norms. Institutions, once revered during prosperity, are now viewed as corrupt. Young adults, the Prophets of the last turning, lead countercultural movements driven by idealism and morality. The era is restless and emotionally charged as society is distanced enough from crisis to prioritize personal freedom and self-expression over collective unity.

According to Strauss and Howe, The Reformation and the Consciousness Revolution embody this turning in the United States. Following the stability of Reconstruction in the Gilded Age, society experienced a surge of progressive reform movements, including women’s suffrage and labor activism, known as the Reformation. The people were gaining awareness as muckraking journalists and reformers exposed corporate corruption. This awakening weakened faith in existing institutions and sparked decades of political and social reform efforts.

A saeculum later, the Boomer generation began leading the free-thinking Conscious Revolution, sparking civil rights protests, feminist movements, gay rights, and anti-war demonstrations in response to events such as the Vietnam War. As this generation was supported by their High, the Golden Age of Capitalism, these boomers had the ability to examine the world around them, free from conformity and inhibitions present in the previous turning. The era gave rise to hippies, spiritual seekers, and radical activists. While it brought profound cultural transformation, it also weakened social cohesion, setting the stage for future fragmentation. The once-trusted institutions of the High, government, tradition, and corporations, became symbols of oppression and complacency.

These times of cultural upheaval most significantly shape the generational archetype: the Nomad. Nomads grow up as “neglected” children in a chaotic world where the traditional conformity of family is reinvented. Subsequently, they become pragmatic and self-reliant adults wary of the institutions that surround them. Their skepticism and independence make them survivors during the next turning, thriving in an age of political polarization and declining trust.

The Third Turning – The Unraveling

Onset by the Nomads of the Awakening, the Unraveling is an era of further institutional decay, rising individualism, and social fragmentation. Society, still reeling from the rebellion of the Awakening, grows increasingly distrustful and disillusioned of their once revered institutions. Polarization deepens as cultural and political factions entrench themselves. Individualism peaks, fostering a culture of consumerism, self-interest, and a general cynicism.

According to Strauss and Howe, World War I and the Neoliberal Era encapsulate this turning in American history. Following the Reformation, World World I and the Roaring Twenties were marked by consumerism, financial speculation, and political and emotional disillusionment. The Jazz Age celebrated individualism and materialism, while political corruption and organized crime flourished. This individualistic, fragmented era abruptly concluded with the stock market crash of 1929, ushering in the following turning, Crisis.

A saeculum later, following the social upheaval of the Conscious Revolution, American society had become politically divided and culturally fragmented in an era now known as the Neoliberal Era. The Reagan Revolution marked a shift toward neoliberalism and deregulation, prioritizing individual wealth over collective welfare. Reaganomics greatly widened the wealth gap, increasing economic polarization nationwide. Compounding this increasing division, the attacks of September 11th, 2001 and the subsequent War on Terror rattled society permanently. Following the turn of the century, institutions were seemingly deteriorating, setting the stage for the next turning, which happens to be the present.

These periods of divide most significantly shape the generational archetype; the Hero. As they grow up in a fragmented and self-interested society, they are subsequently infused with an unflinching commitment to stabilize society. At this stage, Crisis is inevitable, and once crisis strikes, they step up as self-sacrificing civic leaders, driving social renewal and institutional rebuilding.

Strauss states, “During each of these previous Third Turnings, Americans felt as if they were drifting toward a cataclysm. And, as it turned out, they were.”

The Fourth Turning – Crisis

Sparked by a culmination of every event of this saeculum, the Fourth Turning arrives. Crisis.

The Crisis is a time of existential threat and societal breakdown, but also eventual rebirth. It follows the chaos of the Unraveling, as weak institutions collapse under the weight of corruption and dysfunction. Society is now one of survival, sacrifice, and determination. Individualism declines as people rally around collective survival, forming strong social bonds through shared struggle. Strauss states, “A Fourth Turning lends people of all ages what is literally a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to heal (or destroy) the very heart of the republic.”

According to Strauss and Howe, The Great Depression and World War II expresses the most recent Fourth Turning in the history of the United States. During this time, society faced economic collapse, fascist threats, and global war. The G.I. Generation, then young adults, fought with selfless resolve, while older generations guided them through the hardship. Out of the crisis emerged a new civic order: the welfare state, the United Nations, and a rules-based international system rose from the ashes. This post-war rebuilding laid the foundation for the next High, but only after immense suffering and sacrifice.

As can be expected of crisis, this era most significantly shapes two archetypes; the Hero and the Artist. The Heroes, now young adults, are launched into maturity during this era, defining themselves by pragmatism, resilience, and civic duty. Meanwhile, the child Artist archetype is protected and sheltered by older generations, forging a cautious and cooperative worldview. The Heroes lead society through the crisis, allowing for the Artists to rebuild for the High of the next saeculum, starting this cycle anew.

In 1997 Strauss wrote, “Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.”

The world stands resilient at this gate. Signaled by the 2008 financial collapse, and the societal fracture that has only intensified since, we are in the midst of the most recent Fourth Turning, an era marked by upheaval and institutional collapse. Widespread distrust in governments and media, growing polarization, and rising geopolitical instability mirror the conditions of previous Crisis eras. The COVID-19 pandemic, mass protests, and the looming threat of world conflict are not isolated events but rather the tremors of a society straining under the weight of systemic dysfunction. A turning can often be defined by its leaders, and now more than ever does this statement reign true.

Howe states, “Authoritarian government isn’t dead; it’s just hibernating, poised to return in the Fourth Turning, rested and refreshed.”

Coinciding exactly with Strauss and Howe’s predicted catalyst of the Fourth Turning, President Donald J. Trump steps into the Oval Office for his second term. His rise to power in 2016 exposed and widened the deep fractures in American society. His relentless attacks on longstanding institutions and defiance of political norms embodied the era’s anti-establishment fervor, intensifying polarization. The Capitol riot on January 6, 2021, symbolized the fragility of the existing order, a stark reminder of how Fourth Turnings often feature moments of institutional chaos. Trump’s presidency, marked by cultural clashes and political brinkmanship reflect the destabilizing force that typically defines these eras of crisis. After observing this leadership and its dire impacts on society one must ask if this is the societal breakdown and realignment predicted by Strauss and Howe decades prior.

Yet, in the cyclical nature of theory and history, such turbulence is often a precursor to radical transformation or renewal, making his administration a harbinger of the reckoning that will shape the next American epoch.

In Strauss and Howe’s generational theory, a leader takes the stage in the midst of a crisis: the Grey Champion. The Grey Champion is a defining figure who emerges during a Fourth Turning, guiding the nation through chaos. Often seen as either a savior or a tyrant, the Grey Champion inspires fierce loyalty from some and deep resentment from others. Throughout history, figures like Franklin D. Roosevelt during the Great Depression and Abraham Lincoln during the Civil War have filled this role, reshaping their nations amid existential turmoil. As the current Fourth Turning unfolds, some Trump loyalists see echoes of this archetype in Donald Trump, whose norm-shattering presidency galvanized a movement while deepening national divisions. But inconsistent with Strauss and Howe’s theory, Trump did not have the support of the youth as of the 2020 election and has been anything but a unifying force. Therefore, it is believed that our next president, a young democrat who will be perceived as a direct opposition of Trump, will be our next Grey Champion.

Winston Churchill once stated, and Strauss reiterated, “The farther backward you look, the farther forward you are likely to see.”

If this is true, and previous cycles offer any guidance, this turmoil will give rise to a new High. This era of fear and danger will birth an era of stability, reform, and collective purpose. The very generations navigating this darkness will become the architects of a brighter future.

The coming decade will demand courage, resilience, and cooperation. The young, burdened with the failures of broken institutions, will be tasked with rebuilding them. The lessons of hardship will forge new leaders, innovators, and reformers. Though the road ahead will be painful, history reminds us that from every winter comes a spring. Society’s greatest triumphs are often born from its darkest hours.

In her somber concession speech following her presidential defeat in 2024, Kamala Harris uttered an adage that has stood with leaders of change throughout history, “Only when it is dark enough can you see the stars.”

“History is seasonal, and winter is coming,” wrote William Strauss.